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Forecasting Performance of Double Exponential Smoothing Model and ETS Model for Predicting Crude Oil Prices
Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to predict the price of monthly crude oil quickly and accurately by using an easy model and with easily available software.
Design/methodology/approach: This study compares the DES-Holts and ETS models to predict price of monthly crude oil.
Findings/result: The results of this study recommend the ETS(M,N,N) model to predict the price of monthly crude oil which produces an accuracy value of RMSE and MAPE of 4.385812 and 6.499007 %, respectively.
Originality/value/state of the art: This study implements the DES_Holt's and ETS models to predict price of monthly crude oil with an RMSE and MAPE forecasting accuracy that has never been done in previous studies.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31315/telematika.v20i2.8104
DOI (PDF): https://doi.org/10.31315/telematika.v20i2.8104.g5664
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Status Kunjungan Jurnal Telematika